Planning future budgets

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Why future planning matters

After analyzing your historical performance, the next step is shaping your upcoming marketing plan. Dema’s MMM enables you to forecast various spend allocations, set constraints and targets, and see projected impacts on profit before committing to changes.

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Planning with future date ranges

To plan future budgets, select a forward-looking date range from the date picker: When viewing future periods, the model:

• Incorporates predicted seasonality and trends
• Uses the most recent saturation curve parameters
• Applies your configured guardrails and constraints
• Shows forecasted recommendations rather than historical analysis

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Configuring optimization settings

Before viewing future recommendations, configure your optimization settings in the Model settings panel:

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1. Select your optimization target

Choose what metric to optimize for:

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2. Set budget constraints

Define your overall budget parameters:

• Marketing spend min/max: Set acceptable range as percentage of current spend
• Min ROAS: Ensure minimum return threshold is met
• Min epROAS: Ensure minimum profit return threshold is met

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3. Configure guardrails

Set limits on how much spend can change:

• Global guardrails: Default max decrease/increase for all channels (e.g., ±30%)
• Channel-specific guardrails: Override limits for specific channels that need different treatment

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Interpreting future recommendations

When viewing a future date range, the interface shows:

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Overview tab

• Metric cards: Projected optimized vs. baseline performance
• Opportunities: Markets and channels with highest forecasted potential
• Spend matrix: Recommended allocation changes across markets and channels

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Details tab

• Spend recommendation table: Specific recommendations per channel
• Saturation curves: Projected optimal points based on forecasted parameters
• Contribution forecasts: Expected contribution from each channel

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Working with constraints

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Budget-constrained planning

If you need to work within a specific budget:

1. Set Marketing spend max to your target (e.g., 100% to maintain current spend)
2. The model will optimize allocation within that constraint
3. View the “missed potential” to understand what additional budget could achieve

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Performance-constrained planning

If you need to maintain specific returns:

1. Set Min ROAS or Min epROAS to your threshold
2. The model will only recommend allocations that meet these targets
3. Some channels may receive zero spend if they can’t meet the threshold

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Channel-specific constraints

Use channel-specific guardrails for:

• Locked channels: Set 0% increase/decrease to maintain current spend
• Testing channels: Allow higher increase limits for channels you want to scale
• Protected channels: Set lower limits for brand campaigns you want to maintain

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Scenario comparison

Compare different future scenarios by:

1. Create multiple configurations: Set up different MMM configurations with different constraints
2. View the same date range: Compare recommendations across configurations
3. Analyze trade-offs: Understand how different constraints affect projected outcomes

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Example scenarios

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From plan to execution

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Step 1: Review recommendations

1. Check the spend recommendation table for specific changes
2. Verify certainty indicators are acceptable
3. Review saturation curves to understand the rationale

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Step 2: Validate with constraints

1. Ensure recommendations respect your business constraints
2. Check that total spend aligns with your budget
3. Verify return projections meet your targets

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Step 3: Implement gradually

1. Don’t make all changes at once if they’re large
2. Use the guardrails as a guide for maximum weekly changes
3. Monitor early signals in ad platforms (CPC, CTR, conversion rates)

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Step 4: Track and iterate

1. Compare actual results to forecasted performance
2. Adjust constraints if recommendations consistently miss the mark
3. Re-run future analysis weekly to incorporate new data

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Best practices

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Start with realistic constraints

• Keep ±30% default guardrails if you’re new to optimization
• Tighten constraints gradually as you gain confidence
• Allow wider ranges for testing and scaling opportunities

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Account for seasonality

• Future recommendations incorporate predicted seasonality
• Compare to same period last year for context
• Be cautious about extreme recommendations during peak periods

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Consider adstock timing

• Changes in slow-adstock channels take weeks to show full impact
• Don’t expect immediate results from awareness channel adjustments
• Give sufficient time before evaluating performance

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Balance certainty and opportunity

• Prioritize high-certainty channels for large changes
• Consider running incrementality tests for uncertain channels
• Use smaller changes for channels marked “Run test”

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Iterate weekly

• Dema’s MMM updates with new data every week
• Re-run future planning to incorporate latest performance
• Adjust course based on actual vs. forecasted results